Methodology Change History

2026-09-03

Battery simulation overhaul and synthetic load profile refinement:

• Explicit charging schedules on every battery result card. Cards now describe the exact charging schedule assumed in each estimated price (e.g. 23:00–08:00 Night windows, EV-rate windows, peak-hold variants).
• Two explicit charging policies. Households with batteries can compare prices under a Fixed Timer (the default: a tournament across candidate windows generated from the tariff's rate bands) or Smart Control (day-ahead price-following automation with a 4-week trailing load forecast). When Smart Control is off, cards indicate the additional potential savings from automation.
• Chronological simulation. Charge and discharge are simulated chronologically across 23:00-anchored planning days, carrying state of charge across days and preventing impossible time-travel discharges.
• Economics-based cycling. A marginal arbitrage test with a 4 c/kWh wear threshold ensures cycles are worthwhile after losses and degradation. Smart Control charges at maximum rate in deeply discounted bands (e.g. an 8c EV band under 24c Night rates) and decides discharge each half-hour from the current price versus the marginal value of stored energy over the day's remaining forecast demand, replacing the previous static reserve curve.
• Smarter forecasting, validated. The load forecast now sees the full simulated household (EV charging and shifted loads included), not just the non-shiftable baseline. With perfect hindsight the policy lands within ~1–2% of the theoretical optimum for any causal controller; without hindsight it matches or beats the best fixed schedule in most configurations.
• Default charge rate reconciled to 3 kW, matching the single-phase domestic standard and the existing UI input.
• Synthetic load profile weekly rhythm restored. The default synthetic profile (used when comparing by estimated annual kWh) now preserves realistic day-to-day and week-to-week autocorrelation, using 4 continuous 13-week seasonal blocks from UK Power Networks London household data calibrated against the Irish RMDS LP1 profile. The previous construction drew single days from 365 distinct households, breaking weekly habit persistence.

2026-08-04

Major methodology overhaul: the comparison tool was replaced by a ground-up rewrite. The previous methodology page is archived verbatim at Electricity Price Comparison Methodology (Archived). Headline changes:

• Tariff-dependent load shifting. The choice of tariff now affects when flexible loads (battery, EV charging, other large shiftable loads) are scheduled: for each tariff structure, movable load is placed into that tariff's cheapest hours before pricing, rather than pricing every tariff against one fixed schedule. This makes comparisons fairer for households with batteries, EVs, solar panels and heat pumps — these households will see the largest changes versus the old tool.
• New synthetic load shape for annual-kWh comparisons. Estimated-consumption comparisons now use a half-hourly load shape built from the Irish 2026 RMDS standard load profile (daily shape and seasonality) combined with UK Power Networks 2011–2014 household data (half-hourly texture and day-to-day volatility), replacing the old flat day/night/peak split (54%/36%/10%). The band-allocation slider was removed as a consequence: you can no longer override the time-of-day split, because the model now derives a full half-hourly shape instead.
• More conservative solar savings. Solar self-consumption is now modelled at sub-half-hour resolution: within a single half-hour you can import a little and export a little at the same time, and the residual export is worth less than avoided imports. The old model assumed all solar produced within a half-hour offset imports, so modelled solar savings are now lower (and more realistic). Inverter clipping is still applied and is now variance-aware; the inverter capacity (default 5.5 kW) is now user-editable under the solar Advanced options.
• Maximum import capacity default changed from 16 kW to 12 kW (the standard domestic connection), with an "Enhanced supply (16 kW MIC)" toggle for homes with an enhanced connection. Households that would previously have been modelled at 16 kW may see reduced modelled battery/EV stacking unless they tick the box.
• Some legacy-only advanced controls were retired (e.g. the current-supplier field and user-set battery/EV schedules) — scheduling is now decided per tariff inside the comparison.

2026-02-21

Added Maximum Import Capacity 12 kW option for throttling EV charging to a total import rate of 12 kW rather than the default 16 kW. Available under "Advanced Options" when the EV slider is set to a non-zero value.